The World V Climate Change

The Age

Monday April 14, 2008

Leith Young

Leith Young gives an overview of how the world is responding to the climatechange challenge.

IT CAN be as simple as turning off a light, as complex as making a hydrogen car. All over, the world is looking at ways to slow down global warming.

Now, we can actually see our gardens dying, our dams drying, satellite evidence of glaciers melting and a clear sea passage through what is normally frozen Arctic Ocean. We've been wondering if it's all a bit of a beat up, something like the Y2K bug which did not crash our computers at the turn of the century. But could it really be that modern habits - our fast cars, high-definition TVs, climate-controlled offices, hot showers - are overheating the entire world?

Greenhouse-gas emissions from human activities have soared since preindustrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004.

Mean temperatures have already risen by .74 degrees on preindustrial levels and we are committed to a further rise from previous emissions. Carbon dioxide is the most significant, with methane and nitrous oxide also potent contributors.

The year 2050 is a benchmark that is often talked about. By this time, the world's population will have grown from 6 billion to 9 billion people and they will all want more things - greater prosperity, better food, housing, health care and mobility.

Can we provide that energy and still avert dangerous climate change, or will the world have to make do with less? Can we adapt to what is already inevitable?

SETTING TARGETS

A global problem needs international cooperation, so how is the world co-ordinating its response?

INTERNATIONAL cooperation has been under way since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into force in 1990. Australia ratified this convention in 1992.

The Kyoto Protocol to this convention sets targets for developed countries to reduce the rate of growth in their emissions in the period 2008-12. Australia signed Kyoto in December last year, and became a full member this month. The United States, one of the world's biggest greenhouse-gas polluters, has not signed Kyoto. (One American produces about the same greenhouse emissions each year as 60 Bangladeshi, 20 Indians or eight Chinese.) A United Nations climate change planning meeting in Bali last December, attended by 190 governments, established a "road map" for the post-Kyoto period. Talks prepared the way for a major new international agreement to be negotiated in Copenhagen, Denmark, in 2009.

THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chance (IPCC), the leading scientific advisory body on climate change, delivered its fourth assessment last year. It was set up in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). It was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in December, jointly with Al Gore.

LINK www.ipcc.ch

THE Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is an arrangement under Kyoto that enables the transfer of clean technology to the developing world.

Industrialised countries can "offset" their carbon emissions by investing in projects that reduce emissions in the developing world, such as forestry plantings. Critics say it gives First World companies an excuse to continue dependence on fossil fuels, rather than cutting their own emissions.

SETTING targets gives clear messages about reducing emissions in a set time frame. Australia is on track to meet its Kyoto target, which is to restrict our rise in greenhouse-gas emissions to 108% of 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. Our emissions will be 599 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year during this period.

Scientists have estimated that temperatures will rise between one and 6.3 degrees by the end of the century. To avoid dangerous climate change, we must limit that rise to around two degrees. To achieve this, the Australian Conservation Foundation is one of many organizations urging much tougher targets after Kyoto expires in 2012. It wants the Australian Government to set a new goal of a 30% emission reduction by 2020 and 85 to 90% by 2050.

The United Kingdom has a 60% by 2050 target. Germany is on track to meet its target of a 40% cut by 2020. The European Union's wants all industrialised countries to reach 30% by 2020 as part of a global agreement.

LINK See Australia's performance on reaching its emission targets at greenhouse.gov.au.

ACHIEVING THEM

What is the world doing to meet its greenhouse gas emission targets?

Using renewable energy

MOVING to clean renewable energy is a major tool in cutting emissions. Australia, like European Union countries, China and many American states, has a target of 20% renewable energy by 2020. Each country is different, but Australia's mix will include solar, wind and geothermal power, also known as "hot rock" technology.

Wind energy is used in more than 70 countries, and last year generated 1.3% of the power consumed globally.

Spain, China and the US were among the leading wind installing countries. No new wind power was started in Australia last year.

Plant material, including sugar cane, wheat, corn and soy, can produce alternative, cleaner fuels such as ethanol.

Ethanol-mix fuels are widely available in Australia. Brazil has a successful ethanol program based on sugar cane.

One barrier is that the growing demand for biofuels is leading to land shortages for growing food.

The "holy grail" of clean fuels could be hydrogen, and many researchers are trying to economically and cleanly produce hydrogen power.

Increasing energy efficiency

ENERGY efficiency is about getting more from the energy we use. California has spent $US27 million on improving energy efficiency over the past two years, saved billions in energy costs and avoided the need to build several new power stations.

Almost anything can be made more efficient. Fuelefficient cars hold most promise for cutting emissions from the transport sector, which generates 15% of Australia's greenhouse gases.

The Federal Government reached an agreement with the automotive industry in 2003 on a voluntary target of 6.8 litres per 100 kilometres for petrol passenger cars by 2010. Whole buildings can be energy efficient - needing less heating, cooling and lighting. Rating schemes help identify the energy efficiency of products such as washing machines and fridges.

European Union countries will improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020.

Carbon offsetting

CARBON offsetting is where people invest in projects that reduce carbon emissions, such as solar or wind energy generation to "neutralise" the emissions caused in daily life. You can neutralise all sort of things under carbon offset schemes - a jet flight, a party or a night football game. But critics say the schemes will be useless if people simply use carbon offsetting as an excuse to continue their old, carbon excessive ways - offsetting should be used to cancel out emissions we can't easily avoid.

LINK climatefriendly.com

Taxing carbon

A COST on carbon emissions encourages people to cut pollution and save money.

(Would you run three airconditioners if you had to pay for the greenhouse emissions?) It might be taxes or rebates, but cost is also the basis of emissions trading schemes that allow companies to create and sell carbon credits for lowering greenhouse-gas emissions.

The European Union Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Trading Scheme began in 2005 as the largest multicountry, multi-sector scheme in the world. California and other US states have similar "cap and trade" schemes.

Australia has committed to a national scheme by 2010 and is waiting for a report from economist Professor Ross Garnaut to outline details.

The NSW Greenhouse- Gas Reduction Scheme (GGAS) promotes projects that reduce emissions from electricity, including installing energy-saving light bulbs and water-saving showerheads (connected to electric hot water systems).

Companies can create carbon credits, which have a market value and can be sold.

Reducing energy use

LOWERING energy use, rather than trying to meet demand from cleaner sources, is critical. Associate Professor Damon Honnery from Monash University believes that technical solutions cannot deliver deep cuts in emissions in the short time frame needed, especially with the huge unmet demand in the developing world. He says to avoid dangerous climate change, the world will have to dramatically cut energy use in a few decades, and "make do" with less energy. Cars, for example, would have to give way to public transport.

Corporate change

ONE EXAMPLE of the efforts by the corporate world is BP Australia. A massive energy supplier, BP recognises its responsibility to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

It has invested hundreds of millions in making its operations energy efficient, using alternative fuels, investing in carbon-friendly programs and cutting emissions. A subsidiary, BP Alternative, is investing $8 billion over the next 10 years in developing lowcarbon power from solar, wind, natural gas and hydrogen. In Perth, BP runs three hydrogen fuel cell buses as a demonstration. It started BP Global, a carbon offset scheme which helps other businesses offset greenhouse gas emissions from their cars and trucks Research

RESEARCH is essential to cope with global warming - to understand the processes and find new technologies and social arrangements.

(General Motors has joined the race for efficient electric cars.) This year, for example, is International Polar Year and scientific institutions are concentrating on the poles, where climate change signals are most apparent. In the Arctic, the migration patterns of caribou have changed, as has the mix and distribution of fish and bird species. In Antarctica, tiny air bubbles trapped in ice cores from deep under the surface reveal changes in the atmosphere over thousands of years.

Scientists hope soon to drill a core deep enough to reveal a million years of the Earth's climate.

Reducing deforestation

FOREST clearing contributes about 20% to global greenhouse emissions, more than transport. (About 27% of Australia's emissions come from agriculture, forestry and land clearing.) The Bali conference resolved to help developing countries reduce deforestation. This month, Australia and Papua New Guinea announced they will cooperate in a Forest Carbon partnership to change the logging practices in PNG, which is home to the world's fourth-largest rainforest.

Managing waste

WASTE going to landfill and sewage treatment is a major emitter of greenhouse gases, mainly methane. Measures in this area include diverting and converting organic waste and capturing and converting methane to energy. Both Melbourne's large sewage plants capture methane and use it to generate electricity to power the plants.

Increasing awareness

WE WON'T change our habits without community awareness. It may be changing light bulbs, composting, going plasticbag- free, walking to work or supporting government initiatives to make fundamental changes to public transport and power generation.

Al Gore's climate change leadership program in Australia has trained more than 250 people as climate change presenters who go out and spread the word.

Carbon sequestration

CARBON sequestration is a developing technology that can capture carbon from burning fossil fuels.

The carbon is then injected deep underground for longterm storage. It is just one emerging technology that may help slow carbon releases to the atmosphere.

Acting sooner, rather than later

THE cost of limiting warming is technically feasible and economically affordable, according to the British economist Sir Nicholas Stern. However, the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be, especially with developing countries becoming more dependant on fossil fuels.

Business consultants McKinsey & Company have estimated Australia could reduce emissions to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020, costing Australian families less than $1 a day. Don Henry, executive director of the Australian Conservation Foundation, says Australia should find this reassuring. "Not only are these cuts achievable and affordable, they are in Australia's national interest."

© 2008 The Age

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